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NIQ Global Intelligence plc (NIQ)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 revenue rose 5.6% YoY to $1.0408B with organic constant-currency growth of 5.7%; Adjusted EBITDA increased 15.7% to $214.9M (margin 20.6%, +180 bps YoY) .
  • Intelligence subscription momentum continued: Annualized Intelligence Subscription Revenue reached $2.772B (+6.9% YoY), with 105% Net Dollar Retention and 98% Gross Dollar Retention .
  • Balance sheet transformed post-quarter: IPO raised $985.1M and term loans were refinanced/extended to 2030, cutting annualized interest expense run-rate by ~$100M and enlarging the revolver to $750M; management targets ~3.5x net leverage by YE25 .
  • FY25 guidance: organic CC revenue +5.2–5.4%, Adjusted EBITDA $877–$884M (21.2–21.3% margin), and FCF of $(35)–$(5)M for FY implying $245–$275M in 2H25; Q3 revenue guided to $1,023–$1,025M with ~19.7–19.9% Adjusted EBITDA margin .
  • Consensus context: Q3 revenue guidance ($1.024B midpoint) sits modestly below S&P Global consensus ($1.039B*) and FY25 revenue guidance ($4.141B midpoint) modestly below consensus ($4.170B*)—setting up a “prove-it” 2H on execution and FCF .

Values with asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Revenue and margins expanded: Q2 revenue +5.6% YoY to $1.0408B; Adjusted EBITDA +15.7% to $214.9M; margin +180 bps to 20.6% .
  • Intelligence flywheel strengthened: Annualized Intelligence Subscription Revenue $2.772B (+6.9% YoY), NDR 105% (7th straight quarter ≥103%), GDR 98%—indicating resilient renewals and expansion .
  • Strategic progress and capital structure overhaul: Completed IPO and debt refinancing, reduced interest expense run-rate by ~$100M, extended maturities ~2.5 years to Oct-2030, and increased revolver to $750M; management emphasized positioning to “deliver significant shareholder value” and “continued revenue growth and margin expansion” in 2H25 .
    • “Q2 was our latest in a series of strong quarters of revenue growth and margin expansion” — Jim Peck, CEO .
    • “We have significantly improved our capital structure through our IPO and debt refinancing… Our guidance calls for continued revenue growth and margin expansion, as well as significant free cash flow generation in the second half of 2025.” — Mike Burwell, CFO .

What Went Wrong

  • Working capital/FCF headwinds in 1H: Operating cash flow $(162.2)M and FCF $(279.5)M in 1H25, pressured by temporarily higher DSOs (GfK integration), higher annual performance comp, and an accelerated vendor prepay; FCF expected to inflect in 2H25 .
  • APAC profitability softer: APAC Adjusted EBITDA declined 9% YoY in Q2 with margin down 220 bps to 18% (Q2), while Americas Activation saw timing-related softness (−2.5% YoY) even as underlying demand remains “robust” .
  • Effective tax rate volatility: Q2 effective tax rate was 206% due to jurisdictional earnings mix and increased pre-tax income; legislative changes (U.S. OBBA) were enacted after the period and will affect later quarters .

Financial Results

Headline Metrics (YoY and sequential comparison)

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$985.8 $965.9 $1,040.8
Net Loss per Share (GAAP)$(1.89) n/a$(0.14)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$185.7 $188.7 $214.9
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %18.8% n/a20.6%

Notes: Q1 2025 revenue and Adj. EBITDA from the company’s Q2 deck; per-share metrics for Q1 2025 not disclosed in the filings provided .

Segment Breakdown (Q2)

SegmentRevenue Q2 2024 ($M)Revenue Q2 2025 ($M)Adj. EBITDA Q2 2024 ($M)Adj. EBITDA Q2 2025 ($M)Adj. EBITDA Margin Q2 2024Adj. EBITDA Margin Q2 2025
Americas$389.4 $400.0 $112.4 $115.5 29% 29%
EMEA$425.8 $466.2 $105.7 $133.6 25% 29%
APAC$170.6 $174.6 $34.9 $31.8 20% 18%
Total$985.8 $1,040.8 $185.7 $214.9 19% 21%

KPIs

KPIQ2 2024Q2 2025
Annualized Intelligence Subscription Revenue ($USD Millions)$2,619 $2,772
Intelligence Subscription Net Dollar Retention105% 105%
Intelligence Subscription Gross Dollar Retention99% 98%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue (as reported)Q3 2025n/a$1,023M – $1,025M New
Revenue (as reported)FY 2025n/a$4,137M – $4,145M New
Revenue growth (organic CC)Q3 2025n/a5.0% – 5.2% New
Revenue growth (organic CC)FY 2025n/a5.2% – 5.4% New
Adjusted EBITDA (as reported)Q3 2025n/a$202M – $204M New
Adjusted EBITDA (as reported)FY 2025n/a$877M – $884M New
Adjusted EBITDA margin (as reported)Q3 2025n/a19.7% – 19.9% New
Adjusted EBITDA margin (as reported)FY 2025n/a21.2% – 21.3% New
Free Cash FlowFY 2025n/a$(35)M – $(5)M (implies $245–$275M in 2H25) New

Note: The company referenced a July preannouncement but did not include a prior numeric range in the filing; the above reflects the formal ranges disclosed on Aug 14, 2025 .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: We could not locate the Q2 2025 earnings call transcript in the document corpus; webcast link provided by the company for live/replay access .

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024 / Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
AI/Technology initiativesCompany-wide migration to AI-powered platform; automation gains and reduced manual reports; rising user logins and NPS Expanded Digital Shelf to 70 markets; launched/expanded BASES AI Screener (10 countries, 89 categories); acquired Gastrograph AI Positive momentum
Pricing and value-based upsellValue-based pricing strategy and contract escalators highlighted Pricing contributed to OCC growth; upsell/cross-sell across Intelligence and Activation Positive
Regional trendsEMEA improving; APAC steady; Americas stable (prior deck trends) EMEA strongest (rev +9.5%, margin +380 bps); APAC margin compression; Americas modest growth with Activation timing headwinds Mixed: EMEA strong; APAC softer margins
Adjacent verticals/expansionTargeting SMBs and verticals (FS, Gov’t, Media/Ad) Entered supply chain via M‑Trix (Brazil), packaging via agentic AI; adjacent vertical revenue growth highlighted in MD&A Expanding
Capital structure/debt2025 debt repricing lowered spreads IPO + refinancing; lowered interest run-rate by ~$100M; revolver to $750M; maturities to 2030 Materially improved
Regulatory/legaln/a prior for Q1 dataOBBA U.S. tax law enacted post-period; to be reflected in subsequent quarter Watch

Management Commentary

  • Strategic positioning and execution: “Q2 was our latest in a series of strong quarters of revenue growth and margin expansion… Following our transformation, we are excited to enter the public markets.” — Jim Peck, Executive Chairman & CEO .
  • Outlook and FCF inflection: “Our guidance calls for continued revenue growth and margin expansion, as well as significant free cash flow generation in the second half of 2025.” — Mike Burwell, CFO .
  • Commercial wins: Continued retention of large clients, including an eight‑figure multi‑year Intelligence renewal with a top CPG; new data‑sharing deal with Sephora in U.S./Canada .
  • Product innovation: “Launched and expanded our AI‑powered Activation product, BASES AI Screener, to 10 countries and 89 categories… converting Q1 large beta client demand into Q2 wins” .

Q&A Highlights

  • The Q2 2025 earnings call transcript was not available in the document corpus; the company hosted a webcast and replay is available via the IR website link provided .

Estimates Context

  • Revenue vs consensus: Q3 2025 guidance midpoint ($1.024B) vs S&P Global revenue consensus ($1.039B*)—guidance sits modestly below consensus; FY25 revenue guidance midpoint ($4.141B) vs consensus ($4.170B*)—also modestly below .
  • EPS/EBITDA consensus color: Q3 2025 Primary EPS consensus $0.072*; the company does not provide EPS guidance. FY25 Primary EPS consensus $0.347* suggests modest profitability expectations as interest expense falls post-IPO/refi.
  • Where estimates may need to adjust: With formal FY revenue/EBITDA guidance slightly below current consensus, consensus could drift toward company ranges pending 2H execution and FCF conversion .

Values with asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.

Consensus Snapshot (for context)

MetricQ3 2025FY 2025
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Millions)1,038.7*4,170.5*
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)0.0716*0.3470*

Values with asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • 2H execution/FCF inflection is the catalyst: After a working-capital heavy 1H (OCF $(162)M), management targets $245–$275M of FCF in 2H25—delivery here likely drives sentiment and deleveraging narrative .
  • Guidance is prudent vs consensus: Q3 and FY revenue ranges are slightly below S&P consensus, setting a bar NIQ can beat if EMEA strength persists and APAC margins stabilize; watch conversion of backlog and SMB/adjacent verticals .
  • Margin expansion credibility improved: +180 bps YoY to 20.6% in Q2 and FY guide for ~21.2–21.3% alongside cost efficiencies and integration progress support further operating leverage .
  • Balance sheet materially stronger: IPO plus term loan refi/extension lower interest expense run-rate by ~$100M and push maturities to 2030; liquidity enhanced with $750M revolver—reduces financial risk and supports investment capacity .
  • Commercial durability: 105% NDR and 98% GDR in Intelligence reflect robust retention/expansion; continued pricing power and omnichannel/eCommerce upsell underpin mid‑single‑digit growth algorithm .
  • Watch APAC profitability and Activation timing: APAC margin compression and Americas Activation timing were Q2 pressure points; stabilization would further support margin trajectory .
  • Tax/FX watch items: Elevated effective tax rate in Q2 and post-period U.S. tax law changes (OBBA) introduce EPS variability; FX remains meaningful given global footprint .

Appendix: Additional Details and Trend Context

  • Quarterly revenue trend: Q4 2024 $1,042.8M → Q1 2025 $965.9M → Q2 2025 $1,040.8M .
  • Segment commentary:
    • Americas: Intelligence +4.2% YoY; Activation −2.5% YoY on project timing; margin steady at 29% .
    • EMEA: Rev +9.5% (Intelligence +10.8% YoY), margin +380 bps to 29% (price/cross-sell/new verticals; FX tailwind; Russia/Netquest offsets) .
    • APAC: Rev +2.3% YoY; margin −220 bps to 18% (costs and mix) .
  • Cash and liquidity: Cash $259.5M and $75.8M available revolver at 6/30 (pre-IPO upsizing to $750M) .

Citations:

  • Q2 results, guidance, segment, KPIs, and quotes: .
  • Financial statements and MD&A details (cash flow, taxes, segment margins): .
  • Revenue time series and platform/AI metrics: .
  • IPO/refi specifics: .

Values with asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.